Wednesday, August 16, 2017

Quarterly Results Review - 2017Q2

Frasers Centrepoint Trust

Revenue dipped 1%, mainly due to AEI at Northpoint. Phase 2 is expected to complete in September, so I expect the next result to be similar. Shopper traffic is up ~3% if we exclude Northpoint.

All is well except Bedok Point, but I guess it can't be help at this time.

All eyes are now on the grand opening of Northpoint City. Rejoice Frasers shareholders!

Netlink Business Trust

Really small position due to IPO allocation.

Nothing much to say except this stock is not meant for flipping. This is a 5.7% yield dividend machine.

I expect very small fluctuations and investors to treat this more like a bond.

If in the unexpected case that it gets sell down harshly (to 70c), I will consider unleashing a full bullet. Otherwise, it'll probably just occupy a small position on my portfolio for a long time.


Sembcorp Industries

I thought the results was okay, considering the several one-offs deductions. Marine continue to be down in doldrums.

For Utilities, it is mainly supported by Singapore (50% of net profit) now. India's might continue to make losses for 2 to 3 years as they secure the power purchase agreement.

Interim dividend goes down to 3c, from 4c last year to build up their cash reserves.

Strategic revamp of the company will complete in 4Q.

M1

M1 posted another bad quarter (-20% profit) and is my most concerned counter at the moment. DPU has fallen to 11c, below my previous worst case estimate of 12c. I am strictly monitoring its performance.

Revenue is stable, fibre customers is climbing up slowly ($8K), data exceeding basic bundle is raising, and yet their profits keep falling. They are really squeezing their margins to retain their customers as can be seen from the falling ARPU.

My interpretation is that major shareholders refuse to sell at ~$2.1 due to low ball offers. Hence, the majority shareholders must felt that M1 is worth more than that.

I really have no confident in their CEO. Temasek selling is not a good sign as well. They are diversifying into data analytics, smart nation and IOT initiatives, but these all take time to become profitable.

Yield at $1.9 is 5.8%, based on trailing results.


Capital Commercial Trust

CCT has always been worry free for me. DPU inch up 4.6% despite office sector headwinds. I don't even pay attention to this due to confidence in its management and assets.

Main catalyst now is the redevelopment of Golden Shoe Complex.

The problem is I believe the fair value is $1.6, and now the price has gone up as high as $1.75. First world problem.


Accordia Golf Trust

This quarter gave me a confidence boost, being one of the better earnings for a while, with utilization and player numbers going 2 to 3% above 3 year average. Profit went up 10%. NAV dropped from 0.89 due to weaker Yen.

I really like their asset enhancement initiative slides which was pretty cool. GPS navigation systems, junior and ladies programmes, special events, collaboration with partners like car rentals. It gave a more 'story' perspective to their business instead of all numbers.


Far East Hospitality Trust


Property income dipped slightly to 1%, while DPU slide by 4%.

It will continue to be challenging in 2017 until hotel supply taper off and hopefully recovery in 2018.
Singtel

Singtel proves its resiliency compared to the other 2 Telco, and profit would have been up 3% if not been for intense competition at Airtel. While ARPU is lower (a macro trend), it is much higher at $65.

Its $2 billion profit from Netlink will be recorded in Q2.

Very safe 4.6+% yield and my largest position.
Frasers Centrepoint Ltd


Another good set of results.

Frankly, I'm treating this like a property ETF so I am not reading much into their individual segments.

70% of the assets and 50% of net profits are from recurring sources (i.e REITs), which provides a good "baseline" of dividends.

Dividends has been maintained at 8.6c for the past 3 years and I expect it to continue.


Capitaland Mall Trust


Capitaland Mall once again erases all rumors of "death of retail malls" in Singapore you see all over the news. Glad I did believe myself and brought in a substantial position. Its all about asset quality and location.

Despite the absence of Funan, they still manage to maintain their profits, shopper traffic and most importantly DPU.

Quite confident that their 11c, 5.5% yield is very safe until the grand opening of Funan.

I am not a professional investment guru; I'm a income machine builder.


Straits Times Index

DPU is back to 48c (2015 level). At current prices, yield is ~3%.

No comments:

Post a Comment