Wednesday, March 1, 2017

Quarterly Results Review - 2016Q4

Frasers Centrepoint Trust

DPU is maintained despite the fall in revenue due to corresponding fall in expenses. Northpoint revenue down 25% dude to ongoing AEI.

Slight increase in debt due to acquisition of Yishun 10 retail podium. Occupancy is stable at its 2 jewels, but show signs of decreasing at the smaller malls - especially Bedok Point. It 's amazing they are still getting positive rental revision (+6.9%) in the current retail climate, proving just how resilient their malls are.

NAV is $1.93 and I expect full year DPU of 11.7c. At current price, yield is 5.9%.

Super Group

Awaiting takeover at $1.3. Expected to cash out in April.


Sembcorp Industries

Full year dividend has fallen to 8c, a far cry from the >16c when I first got vested.

Utilities is stable and net profit would be up 4% excluding one-time items. Marine is finally back in (slight) black after taking huge write-downs last year.

This is really one of the better quarterly results in a long time. Full year EPS is 19.9 (I expected 19c worst case) and DPS is 8c (I expected 10c). Their payout ratio dropped from ~50% to 40%, signifying they are preserving cash.

Management guided a challenging 2017, but I believe the worst is over for Sembcorp.

M1

Profits for the year fell 16.1% mainly due to lower international call, roaming (even I cancelled this) and increased depreciation of 4G network assets.

Only saving grace is their fibre, postpaid and prepaid customers are still growing. This comes at a cost of ARPU as they really "offer gao gao". Even I switched to M1 Fibre.

Full Year DPU is 12.9 cents (down from 15.3), and EPS is 16.1 (down from 19.0). Yield at price of $2 is 6.45%.

Management guided challenging environment, and growth in other "business areas" (IOT, data analytics) as they always do.

I might consider averaging down if it comes down to 7% yield.

Capital Commercial Trust

Surprising Q4 results with a 10% increase in DPU due to full acquisition of CapitaGreen, resulting in full year DPU of 9.08c.

Management expects slight negative rental revision in the future, but this is already well known.

80% fixed interest debts with AEI of Golden Shoe as its main growth catalyst going forward.

At $1.57, this is yielding 5.8%. Holding for the long term.
Accordia Golf Trust

DPU fell from 2.16 to 2.09 (3.2% lower) due to slightly lower revenue ("warmer winters") and higher expenses.

While they claim it's due to weather, profits does seem to be gradually trending down. I have to observe this for a few more months but thankfully, the yield is consider high.

Price to book is 0.68 (book value: 0.93). I'm expecting yearly dividend of 4.8c which yields around 6.8% at current price of $0.7. This is a fall from the 7.4% expectation previously.


ST Engineering

Much better than expected results with a surprisingly strong Q4.

I am looking to get back if the chance arises.
Singtel

Showed resilliant results (net profit up 2%) when its peers are down in doldrums (both M1 and Starhub down 30 %).

Nothing much to say except I'm confident. Looking forward to Netlink IPO later this year.
Frasers Centrepoint Ltd


Really surprising results with net profits up 90% due to profit recognition from Suzhou, China and Singapore. FCL currently has about 46%, 33%, 9% and 7% assets in Singapore, Australia, China and Europe respective - and they are looking to increase investments in overseas assets for long term growth. It's a good diversification from SG for me.

70% of the assets and 50% of net profits are from recurring sources (i.e REITs), which provides a good "baseline" of dividends. Despite the relatively high level of debt, I am quite confident in its management.

Dividends has been maintained at 8.6c for the past 3 years (5.8% yield at $1.495, very high for a property developer).

Straits Times Index

Distributions actually went up to 53c!

This was a huge surprise given the drop to 42c previously.

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