Sunday, March 5, 2017

Every Singaporean Life?

Come across this fascinating article about the supposed life of every Singaporean, and the author rebuttal against it.

My thoughts?

When you want 5 star hotel wedding, take 30 year loan for million dollar condo, buy big car, go annual vacation to Europe/US, change latest iphone every year, how to save for retirement?

Chinese have this saying: No so big head, don't wear so big hat. If you are a peasant (and earn a peasant income), don't try to live an elite life.

No doubt there are people truly living in poverty in Singapore (don't earn enough to even put 3 meals on table, much less save), but also got lot of cases is people die die want to buy something they can't afford (throw all their savings/take on big debts for car and house) and then claim they nothing left for retirement.

I don't deny the cost of living in Singapore is extremely high, but I think that gives us even more reason to be prudent with our earnings.

"Rich people stay rich by living like they're broke. Poor people stay poor by living like they're rich."

I can only shrug my shoulders when I see people who are lazy to even write a form to credit their salary to a higher interest account (a one time effort and gets you free money).

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Instead of the article, I would like to propose an alternative.

The below assumes you have the privilege to pursue financial independence. Generally, this means:

- You and your dependents (family), are generally healthy and does not have long term and huge medical bills.
- Your family does not depend on you for survival, and you do not have to spend a huge portion of your income on them.
- You income is not too low (Subjective, but I would say below 2.5K)

In my opinion, most graduates from middle income family would have no problem meeting these criteria.

1. Study hard, get a good degree, earn a median income and try to have as high of a saving rate as possible, especially in your 20s (the first 5 year is crucial).

2. If applicable, clear all your debts ASAP, do not rack up credit card or any other debt, and do not waste money on useless shit. Do not take debt to go on vacation, buy liabilities and other non-income producing crap.

3. Save up emergency fund of 6 months, and put them in a high interest account. Then start saving for your warchest. Try to hit 1 year annual saving before 30s. This immediately gives you passive income of $1.2K per year (or ~$100 per month).

4. Start investing properly and correctly. Even if you are extremely conservative, you should get around 5% return over the long term.

5. Earn money -> invest -> collect dividends -> re-invest your dividends. Keep repeating this for the next 10 years.

6. If you decide to get married, have a simple wedding, simple honeymoon, buy an affordable house. Do not buy a car. If you have a child, be prepare to delay your retirement if you want to send your kid to expensive enrichment and tuition. If you really want to leave a legacy for your child, try starting a portfolio for him/her instead. He/she will have additional 20 years of compounding.

7. If you follow this diligently, by the time you're in your 40s, your investment (passive income) can easily cover more than half of your expenses (saving rate ~50%). If your saving rate is truly insane (>70%), you might even reach financial independence here. If you haven't, continue doing step 5 for the next 10 years and you would achieve the same. It's all up to your saving rate at this point.

8. As a guideline, aim to have minimum 1 year annual income of savings by 30s. 5 by 40s, 10 by 50s.

If you are willing to even put in a little effort to learn right investing, optimize your savings, and don't over indulge in luxuries, I am very sure most can achieve FIRE within 20 years. Many local bloggers have achieved it much much earlier on median income, in their 30s even. So 20 years is a really conservative estimate already.

Problem is, are people willing to put in the effort?

Wednesday, March 1, 2017

Quarterly Results Review - 2016Q4

Frasers Centrepoint Trust

DPU is maintained despite the fall in revenue due to corresponding fall in expenses. Northpoint revenue down 25% dude to ongoing AEI.

Slight increase in debt due to acquisition of Yishun 10 retail podium. Occupancy is stable at its 2 jewels, but show signs of decreasing at the smaller malls - especially Bedok Point. It 's amazing they are still getting positive rental revision (+6.9%) in the current retail climate, proving just how resilient their malls are.

NAV is $1.93 and I expect full year DPU of 11.7c. At current price, yield is 5.9%.

Super Group

Awaiting takeover at $1.3. Expected to cash out in April.


Sembcorp Industries

Full year dividend has fallen to 8c, a far cry from the >16c when I first got vested.

Utilities is stable and net profit would be up 4% excluding one-time items. Marine is finally back in (slight) black after taking huge write-downs last year.

This is really one of the better quarterly results in a long time. Full year EPS is 19.9 (I expected 19c worst case) and DPS is 8c (I expected 10c). Their payout ratio dropped from ~50% to 40%, signifying they are preserving cash.

Management guided a challenging 2017, but I believe the worst is over for Sembcorp.

M1

Profits for the year fell 16.1% mainly due to lower international call, roaming (even I cancelled this) and increased depreciation of 4G network assets.

Only saving grace is their fibre, postpaid and prepaid customers are still growing. This comes at a cost of ARPU as they really "offer gao gao". Even I switched to M1 Fibre.

Full Year DPU is 12.9 cents (down from 15.3), and EPS is 16.1 (down from 19.0). Yield at price of $2 is 6.45%.

Management guided challenging environment, and growth in other "business areas" (IOT, data analytics) as they always do.

I might consider averaging down if it comes down to 7% yield.

Capital Commercial Trust

Surprising Q4 results with a 10% increase in DPU due to full acquisition of CapitaGreen, resulting in full year DPU of 9.08c.

Management expects slight negative rental revision in the future, but this is already well known.

80% fixed interest debts with AEI of Golden Shoe as its main growth catalyst going forward.

At $1.57, this is yielding 5.8%. Holding for the long term.
Accordia Golf Trust

DPU fell from 2.16 to 2.09 (3.2% lower) due to slightly lower revenue ("warmer winters") and higher expenses.

While they claim it's due to weather, profits does seem to be gradually trending down. I have to observe this for a few more months but thankfully, the yield is consider high.

Price to book is 0.68 (book value: 0.93). I'm expecting yearly dividend of 4.8c which yields around 6.8% at current price of $0.7. This is a fall from the 7.4% expectation previously.


ST Engineering

Much better than expected results with a surprisingly strong Q4.

I am looking to get back if the chance arises.
Singtel

Showed resilliant results (net profit up 2%) when its peers are down in doldrums (both M1 and Starhub down 30 %).

Nothing much to say except I'm confident. Looking forward to Netlink IPO later this year.
Frasers Centrepoint Ltd


Really surprising results with net profits up 90% due to profit recognition from Suzhou, China and Singapore. FCL currently has about 46%, 33%, 9% and 7% assets in Singapore, Australia, China and Europe respective - and they are looking to increase investments in overseas assets for long term growth. It's a good diversification from SG for me.

70% of the assets and 50% of net profits are from recurring sources (i.e REITs), which provides a good "baseline" of dividends. Despite the relatively high level of debt, I am quite confident in its management.

Dividends has been maintained at 8.6c for the past 3 years (5.8% yield at $1.495, very high for a property developer).

Straits Times Index

Distributions actually went up to 53c!

This was a huge surprise given the drop to 42c previously.