Thursday, November 10, 2016

Quarterly Results Review - 2016Q3

Frasers Centrepoint Trust (FY2016)

DPU: 11.764c
NAV: $1.93

4th quarter DPU was 1.5% lower, mainly due to AEI at Northpoint. Full year DPU is 1.3% higher, marking its 10 year consecutive DPU growth. Financial sheet remains very healthy with ample debt headroom. Yield now around 5.8%.

I remain very confident of FCT - Strong management records, potential accretive acquisitions from Waterway Point, new anchor tenants at CCP. They've also just acquired the retail podium of Yishun 10.

The recent news of Amazon hitting Singapore early next year could put pressure on all retail REITs (and is dragging down its share price). I will look to accumulate should it should fall to $1.8 (around 6.5% yield)

Super Group (FY2016Q3)

Awaiting takeover at $1.3


Sembcorp Industries (FY2016Q3)


9M results: Utilities begin to show results, with net profit up 11% excluding 1 time items. More overseas (india and China) plants expected to commence in 4Q. Marine profits plunged 82%. Disastrous, but still profit-making I guess.

Overall, 9M Net profit plunged 49% to 12.2 cents. Assuming an annualized EPS

I was expecting an annualized EPS of 19 cents, but it looks like it could hit as low as 16 cents now. At 16 cents EPS and 10 cents DPS at $2.5, it's P/E is 15.6 and yield is 4%. NAV is $3.58.

Free cash flow was a huge positive due to capex cuts. I am most worried about its debt (interest cover at merely 3.4)

M1 (FY2016Q3)

Revenue fell 10% and 3Q net profit falls 23.4% - a surprisingly bad result. And the 4th Telco isn't even online yet!

Market share and everything else remained stable. The introduction of add-on data (to deter the 4th Telco) have reduced their data revenue significantly IMO. Debt keeps climbing higher, with Debt/Equity now at 1.1 from 0.9 last year.

Management guided ~12% decline in profit from 'single digit decline' previously. 9 Months EPS is 12.6. Assuming 15cs full year EPS and 80% payout ratio of 12c DPS at $2.1, P/E is 13 and yield is 5.8%.


Capital Commercial Trust (FY2016Q3)

Continue to hold up well with ever so slightly growing DPU.

AEI includes Raffles City refurbishing and redevelopment of Gold Shoe Car Park.

I am expecitng at least 8.5c (in the worst case) to 9.0c DPU for a long time. At $1.5, this is yielding 6%.
Accordia Golf Trust (FY2016Q2)

DPU came in about 5% lower compared to last year, attributed to higher than usual occurence of typhoons in Aug and Sep. Visitors and utilization all went lower as a result. Half year DPS is 2.45c (down from 2.58c).

Overall, nothing to be concern about if we believe that the DPU will remain "stable over the long term".

Assuming a conservative 4.8c annual dividend, yield is around 7.4% (I am not hopeful of 9.6% present in the slides)


ST Engineering (FY2016Q3)

Results is not that bad despite the headlines fell in net profits due to 1 off $61M provision. Management guided comparable revenue and lower PBT compared to last year.

Expect 15c dividends to be very safe based on strong order books, track records and cashpile.

Will look to add this should it hit $3. (5% yield)
Straits Times Index (FY2016)

Not Applicable

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